Main points: inductive reasoning widely and fallaciously used in probabilistic/statistical decision making; the ludic fallacy, mistaking the game for reality, the map for the territory (problem of getting overly absorbed in explanatory analogies); narrative fallacy, people try to insert causes to stitch together stories where causes are not found, or at least not known, this leads to belief that future events are equivalently predictable; confirmation bias, we look for evidence that confirms our preconceived notions instead of looking at the whole set of evidence; survivor bias, we look too often at the sub-sample of successes while ignoring the original sample set, including failures (probably a large problem in business “literature”).